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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.