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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."